{"ontology":"https://layer.re/machine/schema.json","epistemic_model":"evidence-backed-temporal-layer-graph","canonical":true,"type":"layer_history","layer":{"id":"layer-open-source","slug":"open-source","name":"Open source","description":"Publicly inspectable and modifiable software.","machine_description":"Publicly inspectable and modifiable software.","active":1},"snapshots":[{"id":"state-open-source-2022q1","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2022-03-31 23:59:59.000","summary":"Open-model infrastructure was maturing from smaller community models toward publicly accessible multi-billion-parameter systems such as GPT-NeoX-20B.","dependencies":["layer-software","layer-compute","layer-research"],"constraints":["GPU access","serving cost","gap to largest closed models"],"emerging_capabilities":["publicly accessible large-model APIs","open training/model software"],"underdeveloped_components":["frontier-scale parity","uniform definitions of model openness"],"uncertainties":["Feb 2 public access preceded the announced full checkpoint release"],"confidence":0.86,"previous_snapshot_id":null,"mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-01T17:34:32.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-01T18:05:36.396Z","updated_at":"2026-10-01T18:05:36.396Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2022q2","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2022-06-30 23:59:59.000","summary":"Open-model dynamics moved much closer to frontier scale in Q2, while 'openness' itself became visibly constrained by licensing, controlled access, compute cost and responsible-release policy.","dependencies":["layer-software","layer-research","layer-compute","layer-governance"],"constraints":["controlled licensing","serving cost","training reproducibility","compute concentration"],"emerging_capabilities":["frontier-scale weight access for approved research","training logbooks and code release"],"underdeveloped_components":["unrestricted frontier model access"],"uncertainties":["whether controlled research access should be classified as open source in the strict software sense"],"confidence":0.89,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2022q1","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-01T18:14:00.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-01T19:22:17.764Z","updated_at":"2026-10-01T19:22:17.764Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2022q3","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2022-09-30 23:59:59.000","summary":"Open-model distribution broadened sharply across language, translation, image and speech, with large downloadable artifacts and code available under heterogeneous licenses and access conditions.","dependencies":["layer-models","layer-software","layer-research","layer-compute","layer-governance"],"constraints":["license heterogeneity","large inference requirements","reproduction cost","responsible-use restrictions"],"emerging_capabilities":["BLOOM 176B distribution","NLLB-200 models and tooling","Stable Diffusion weights","Whisper models and inference code"],"underdeveloped_components":["uniform open-source definitions","cheap frontier-scale execution"],"uncertainties":["downloadability and research openness were not equivalent to unrestricted use or decentralized compute"],"confidence":0.97,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2022q2","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-02T15:12:29.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-02T16:08:16.258Z","updated_at":"2026-10-02T16:08:16.258Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2023q2","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2023-06-30 23:59:59.000","summary":"Open foundation-model development became materially more complete through open training data, research resources and multiple commercially reusable language-model families.","dependencies":["layer-research","layer-models","layer-software","layer-compute"],"constraints":["training compute","licensing heterogeneity","frontier gap"],"emerging_capabilities":["RedPajama","MPT-7B","Falcon 40B","SAM resources"],"underdeveloped_components":["frontier-scale reproduction without major compute"],"uncertainties":["open access does not mean low-cost reproduction"],"confidence":0.97,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2022q3","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-07T12:55:58.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-07T14:04:48.611Z","updated_at":"2026-10-07T14:04:48.611Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2023q3","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2023-09-30 23:59:59.000","summary":"Open model distribution became mainstream infrastructure in Q3 through broad commercial Llama 2 availability across cloud/model ecosystems and the permissive Apache-2.0 Mistral 7B release.","dependencies":["layer-models","layer-software","layer-research","layer-compute"],"constraints":["license heterogeneity","training compute","serving cost","safety tooling","frontier gap"],"emerging_capabilities":["commercial Llama 2 deployment","Apache-2.0 Mistral 7B","local/cloud/model-hub distribution"],"underdeveloped_components":["uniform open licensing","frontier-scale reproduction at low cost","mature open safety infrastructure"],"uncertainties":["Llama 2's community license contains material restrictions and should not be flattened into unrestricted open source"],"confidence":0.98,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2023q2","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-07T16:04:51.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-07T16:56:16.867Z","updated_at":"2026-10-07T16:56:16.867Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2023q4","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2023-12-31 23:59:59.000","summary":"Open model infrastructure expanded beyond weights into permissive MoE architecture and reusable open trust/safety tooling.","dependencies":["layer-models","layer-research","layer-software","layer-compute"],"constraints":["compute","safety validation","frontier capability gap"],"emerging_capabilities":["Mixtral 8x7B","Purple Llama","CyberSec Eval","Llama Guard"],"underdeveloped_components":["mature open deployment governance","cheap frontier reproduction"],"uncertainties":["Open safety tools do not guarantee safe deployment"],"confidence":0.97,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2023q3","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-08T15:50:00.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-08T17:00:00.131Z","updated_at":"2026-10-08T17:00:00.131Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2024q1","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2024-03-31 23:59:59.000","summary":"Open model development diversified between transparent OLMo training artifacts and Gemma's licensed weight distribution; these are distinct openness regimes.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["availability scope","reliability and implementation limits"],"emerging_capabilities":["OLMo publishes an open training and research stack","Gemma 2B and 7B weights and development tools release"],"underdeveloped_components":["generalization beyond the selected evidence"],"uncertainties":["Research reproducibility does not imply frontier parity or independently reproduced vendor performance.","Open weights under Gemma terms must not be conflated with unrestricted open-source licensing."],"confidence":0.93,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2023q4","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-09T19:12:47.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-09T21:04:17.185Z","updated_at":"2026-10-09T21:04:17.185Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2024q2","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2024-06-30 23:59:59.000","summary":"Licensed language-model weights and open robot-policy tooling broadened developer adaptation; openness and deployment guarantees remained distinct.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["availability scope","reliability and implementation limits"],"emerging_capabilities":["Llama 3 weights release and Meta AI expands","OpenVLA publishes a vision-language-action research model","Gemma 2 models become available"],"underdeveloped_components":["generalization beyond the selected evidence"],"uncertainties":["Custom-licensed open weights are not unrestricted open source; planned multimodality is not released capability.","Selected robot evaluations do not establish universal embodiment transfer or commercial autonomous deployment.","Model-size efficiency and benchmark superiority remain vendor claims; license restrictions still apply."],"confidence":0.93,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2024q1","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-09T19:12:47.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-10T07:29:06.788Z","updated_at":"2026-10-10T07:29:06.788Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2024q3","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2024-09-30 23:59:59.000","summary":"Downloadable model ecosystems expanded, while custom, noncommercial and permissive licenses remained materially different.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["availability scope","reliability and implementation limits"],"emerging_capabilities":["Llama 3.1 releases licensed 405B and smaller weights","FLUX.1 launches with distinct API and weight licenses","Qwen2.5 releases general, coding and mathematics weights"],"underdeveloped_components":["generalization beyond the selected evidence"],"uncertainties":["Meta's frontier-parity evaluation is an actor claim; accessible weights do not mean unrestricted open source.","Licensing differs by variant; image quality superiority is not independently established here.","License exceptions vary by model; vendor benchmark leadership is not an independently verified fact."],"confidence":0.93,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2024q2","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-09T19:12:47.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-10T07:49:15.919Z","updated_at":"2026-10-10T07:49:15.919Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2024q4","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2024-12-31 23:59:59.000","summary":"Open protocol implementations and downloadable model releases broadened building blocks while model and code licenses remained distinct.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["availability scope","reliability and implementation limits"],"emerging_capabilities":["Model Context Protocol is open-sourced","DeepSeek-V3 releases model and API"],"underdeveloped_components":["generalization beyond the selected evidence"],"uncertainties":["Initial protocol release is not universal interoperability, portable authorization or autonomous persistence.","Reported training efficiency and benchmark parity are vendor claims, not independent total-cost measurements."],"confidence":0.93,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2024q3","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-09T19:12:47.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-10T08:02:14.505Z","updated_at":"2026-10-10T08:02:14.505Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2025q1","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2025-03-31 23:59:59.000","summary":"Reasoning weights, agent SDKs and robot-model resources broadened adaptable components while licenses differed.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["availability scope","reliability and implementation limits"],"emerging_capabilities":["DeepSeek-R1 releases reasoning weights","Responses API and Agents SDK launch","Gemma 3 releases compact multimodal model family","GR00T N1 releases customizable humanoid foundation model"],"underdeveloped_components":["generalization beyond the selected evidence"],"uncertainties":["Vendor o1-parity and low-cost narratives are not independent total-cost evidence; distilled models retain upstream-license considerations.","Built-in search and computer-use previews are bounded tools; orchestration is not proof of autonomous agents.","Gemma licensing differs from unrestricted open source; benchmark and single-accelerator efficiency remain vendor-scoped claims.","Customizable research resources do not establish general-purpose humanoid deployment."],"confidence":0.93,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2024q4","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-09T19:12:47.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-10T08:11:02.813Z","updated_at":"2026-10-10T08:11:02.813Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2025q2","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2025-06-30 23:59:59.000","summary":"This period adds specific open-source evidence through A2A protocol is announced. Maturity remains specific to the cited products and programs; this synthesis does not infer sector-wide adoption.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["Protocol publication does not prove universal interoperability or shared authorization."],"emerging_capabilities":["A2A protocol is announced"],"underdeveloped_components":["Independent measurement of deployment scope and outcomes"],"uncertainties":["The referenced historical predecessor belongs to the reviewed chronology; the live history must be checked before ingestion."],"confidence":0.9,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2025q1","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-10T06:24:42.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-10T08:25:19.366Z","updated_at":"2026-10-10T08:25:19.366Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2025q3","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2025-09-30 23:59:59.000","summary":"This period adds specific open-source evidence through OpenAI releases gpt-oss weights; AP2 agent payment protocol is announced; Instant Checkout launches with an Agentic Commerce Protocol. Maturity remains specific to the cited products and programs; this synthesis does not infer sector-wide adoption.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["Open weights do not imply publication of the full training data or complete reproducible training pipeline.","Protocol support does not confer bank permissions or prove broad live transaction adoption.","Merchant expansion is prospective and checkout still requires user confirmation using existing payment infrastructure."],"emerging_capabilities":["OpenAI releases gpt-oss weights","AP2 agent payment protocol is announced","Instant Checkout launches with an Agentic Commerce Protocol"],"underdeveloped_components":["Independent measurement of deployment scope and outcomes"],"uncertainties":["The referenced historical predecessor belongs to the reviewed chronology; the live history must be checked before ingestion."],"confidence":0.9,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2025q2","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-10T06:24:42.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-10T08:31:22.793Z","updated_at":"2026-10-10T08:31:22.793Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2025q4","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2025-12-31 23:59:59.000","summary":"Open agent infrastructure gains neutral project governance and a portable skill specification; publication does not guarantee interoperable implementations.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["Neutral governance and donated projects do not establish universal implementation or solved interoperability.","Specification publication does not establish uniform support or a permission enforcement standard."],"emerging_capabilities":["Agentic AI Foundation is formed","Agent Skills specification is opened for portability"],"underdeveloped_components":["Independent measurement of deployment scope and outcomes"],"uncertainties":["The referenced historical predecessor belongs to the reviewed chronology; the live history must be checked before ingestion."],"confidence":0.9,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2025q3","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-10T06:24:42.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-10T08:37:10.930Z","updated_at":"2026-10-10T08:37:10.930Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2026q1","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2026-03-31 23:59:59.000","summary":"This period adds specific open-source evidence through Universal Commerce Protocol is introduced. Maturity remains specific to the cited products and programs; this synthesis does not infer sector-wide adoption.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["Promised forthcoming checkout is distinct from a completed production launch on this date."],"emerging_capabilities":["Universal Commerce Protocol is introduced"],"underdeveloped_components":["Independent measurement of deployment scope and outcomes"],"uncertainties":["The referenced historical predecessor belongs to the reviewed chronology; the live history must be checked before ingestion."],"confidence":0.9,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2025q4","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-10T06:24:42.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-10T08:45:32.711Z","updated_at":"2026-10-10T08:45:32.711Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-2026q2","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2026-06-30 23:59:59.000","summary":"This period adds specific open-source evidence through AP2 moves to FIDO and adds delegated payment support. Maturity remains specific to the cited products and programs; this synthesis does not infer sector-wide adoption.","dependencies":[],"constraints":["Preauthorization mechanisms do not imply unbounded authority or universal merchant and issuer adoption."],"emerging_capabilities":["AP2 moves to FIDO and adds delegated payment support"],"underdeveloped_components":["Independent measurement of deployment scope and outcomes"],"uncertainties":["The referenced historical predecessor belongs to the reviewed chronology; the live history must be checked before ingestion."],"confidence":0.9,"previous_snapshot_id":"state-open-source-2026q1","mapping_mode":"retrospective","reconstructed_at":"2026-10-10T06:24:42.000Z","created_at":"2026-10-10T09:06:48.254Z","updated_at":"2026-10-10T09:06:48.254Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-20260930-initial","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2026-09-30 12:45:00.000","summary":"Open-source components are being used as strategic ecosystem-building tools in both agent security and AI accelerator software.","dependencies":["layer-software","layer-research"],"constraints":["fragmentation","maintenance burden","uneven adoption"],"emerging_capabilities":["open agent runtimes","open accelerator libraries and programming tools"],"underdeveloped_components":["cross-ecosystem compatibility"],"uncertainties":["whether open components translate into durable developer ecosystems"],"confidence":0.9,"previous_snapshot_id":null,"mapping_mode":"contemporaneous","reconstructed_at":null,"created_at":"2026-09-30T12:54:32.492Z","updated_at":"2026-09-30T12:54:32.492Z"},{"id":"state-open-source-20261004-open-weight","layer_id":"layer-open-source","as_of":"2026-10-04 20:12:00.000","summary":"Open-weight AI remains an active capability-distribution path, with Kolibri providing a new Apache-2.0 European model release and Reflection signaling further expansion of institution-controlled open-weight deployment.","dependencies":["layer-models","layer-software","layer-compute"],"constraints":["hardware access","evaluation quality","deployment expertise"],"emerging_capabilities":["local/on-prem model operation","modifiable open-weight reasoning and tool-use systems"],"underdeveloped_components":["broad independent benchmarking","evidence of large-scale production adoption"],"uncertainties":["how much open weights translate into practical sovereignty across organizations"],"confidence":0.94,"previous_snapshot_id":null,"mapping_mode":"contemporaneous","reconstructed_at":null,"created_at":"2026-10-04T21:57:54.258Z","updated_at":"2026-10-04T21:57:54.258Z"}]}